seren

Time for Assembly election predictions... various Welsh blogateers are indulging in the ludicrous game of trying to guess how the electoral cookie will crumble in May.

Some, like Peter Black, are a bit obvious - Lib Dem predicts Lib Dem gains shock! but I'm not going to accept the established view that Labour will slip slightly.

There are a number of factors at work:

1. The UK dimension - this is a chance for voters to kick Blair over Iraq, cash for peerages and for being Tony Blair.
2. The failure of the Assembly government on key issues such as the NHS and a lame-duck government under Rhodri (I'll resist the temptation to say that lame ducks tend to swim in circles).
3. The Scottish factor, which has helped raise the idea of greater self-government.
4. The Cameron factor - does it work in Wales?
5. The Ming/Lembit factor - how bad is that for the Lib Dems?
6. An increasing sense of national identity - the few opinion polls we have in Wales point to greater support for independence and a majority in favour of Scottish-style powers.

Anecdotal evidence suggests the Labour vote is in meltdown, which raises the question of where that vote will go. Or will disillusioned Labour voters stay at home?

A low turnout may also mean that large swings are possible.

The smaller parties may have a bearing on matters - on the list, the Tory vote will be eroded by the re-branded Independence Party (that could be interesting in a Welsh context... but it's the UKIP), an anti-gay Christian Party and the BNP. Labour will have challenges from Forward Wales and People's Voice to contend with and the BNP will also hoover up some of their vote - especially on the North Wales coast.

One other factor is that Labour will not have the reserves of funding it has enjoyed in the past - remember the £100,000 it threw at the Blaenau Gwent by-election in just one constituency?
So... deep breath:

Labour lose Aberconwy, Llanelli and Caerffili to Plaid.
Labour lose Clwyd West, Preseli Pembroke and Cardiff North to the Tories.
They gain a list seat in Mid and West Wales

Plaid gain Aberconwy, Llanelli and Caerffili
Plaid gains one list seat in the North and one in South Central

Tories gain Clwyd West, Preseli Pembroke and Cardiff North from Labour
Tories lose list seats in the North, Mid and West and South Central

No change for Lib Dems, Trish Law or John Marek

Labour 24
Plaid 17
Tories 11
Lib Dems 6
Trish Law 1
John Marek 1

Of course I'm biased but I'm also going on evidence of Labour's vote collapsing on the doorstep.

If this is the case in May, then we're in for some fun!

While Cymru Fach freezes over the next fortnight, spare a thought as I sip a Mojito in sunny Cuba.

No doubt there'll be a report on Fidel and 21st Century Cuba in the coming weeks.

Adios, companeros!

With the insatiable cravings of an addict, the US prepares to justify an invasion of Iran.

It claims, in anonymous briefings naturally, that the Iranian government is supplying weaponry to the Iraqi resistance.

Which sounds like the US supplying weaponry to Saddam in the 1980-88 war against Iran, then...

But these anonymous sources at the Pentagon are unaware of the irony. They are simply looking to soften up the American public for yet another hare-brained assault on a Middle Eastern country rich in oil and unafraid to stand up to US imperialism.

The allegations have about as much credence as the "incontrovertible proof" that existed for Saddam's Weapons of Mass Destruction. The home-made roadside bombs being used with devastating effect on US and UK troops are just that - home made.

More bizarre still, the Sunni insurgents are totally at odds with the Shia regime in Iran. They are far more likely to be getting support - if any is needed - from Syria (no doubt Syria is next in line to be bombed back to the Stone Age if Iran falls).

The US has no exit strategy from Iraq except to escalate war in the region, possibly involving Israel in what could develop into a Third World War if we're not careful. Iran is no Iraq - it is larger, has a far better infrastructure and there are few dissidents that will welcome the toppling of a democratically elected regime by the "Great Satan".

Rather than planning another military adventure based on oil greed and imperialism, the US and UK have to pull out of the Middle East now.

Devolution has been a disappointment to all radicals who want Welsh people to have the powers to decide their own future. The Assembly has been timid and toothless in dealing with key issues.

But devolution has changed the mindset of Welsh politics, albeit subtly. Ten years ago there was a substantial minority opposed to the Assembly and in favour of its abolition. Today, those voices are confined to the outer fringes of the Tory Party, the UKIP and a revolting organisation called the English Democrats. These morons are making great play of Monmouth being a part of England, concealing the fact that the English Democrats are a front for a far-right grouping called The Third Position.

Even the Tories, who led the "No" campaign, have embraced devolution - not least because the proportional nature of the voting means they get some seats.

But what of Labour? The Unionist element in Labour - think Kinnock - has always been a feature of the party, which has done as much as the Tories to cement the Union over the past century. But could the battle for Rhodri's mantle also signal a battle between the Unionist and "nationalist" wings of the party? Perhaps a more important question is whether the party is ready to take on board the latest constitutional changes.

To stand in a council election you must find 10 local people on the electoral register willing to back you. Their names and addresses are then circulated by the council as the candidate's nominators.

The forthcoming by-election in Penyffordd, Flintshire, is being contested by the BNP but the candidate, Dallus Mark Weaver, is from Pantymwyn, a small village some miles away on the other side of Mold. So who signed his nomination papers?

A quick call to some of the people who are named as his supporters reveals they are all elderly and have little or no idea what they signed up for.

This is an old BNP trick.

Steve Smith, an ex-BNP organiser in Burnley, was convicted of electoral fraud for allowing false nominations to go forward in a council election. He was de-barred from standing in elections for five years as a result.

Will the council investigate?

The BNP is prepared to lie and con in a desperate attempt to make a breakthrough in Wales, where it has had no electoral success. It will be standing candidates on the Assembly list - anti-fascists will be watching them every step of the way.

I wasn't the only one to notice "our" dear Prince William cheering on the English rugby team yesterday. As Brit Nat Watch comments, quite right too - he is English after all.

What is pathetic is that the Welsh Rugby Union made him a patron when it's obvious he has no more interest in Welsh rugby than Slovakian scuba diving.

Admittedly, given the way we played yesterday against Scotland, I can see his point.

The WRU remains one of the blazered bodies that seems stuck in the 1950s, convinced of the divine right of the royals to rule and unable to contemplate the idea that Wales might actually want a patron that actually supported the team.

The royals' ancestors robbed and pillaged their way to the top. They stole common land and fought for the rest (or rather dragooned others to do their fighting for them). Their descendants today are reduced to getting freebies for rugby matches.

Reason 202 for a Welsh Republic - more tickets for the fans!

Alun Davies may be the only Labour list AM after May, but let's hope he's more active in the Assembly than he is on his blog.

For Alun is still looking forward to Christmas, while no doubt continuing "fighting for socialism in Mid and West Wales".

A turkey (no, not Alun) for anyone who can work out what exactly that hollow slogan means under New Labour.

Mike Parker's new book about English attitudes to Wales and the Welsh sounds like a good read. In his own words "Neighbours From Hell? (published by Y Lolfa) is a 60,000-word rant about English attitudes to Wales and the Welsh."

Mike will be reading part of the rant at Waterstone's in The Hayes, Cardiff at 7.30pm next Thursday, 15th February.

Ron Davies's decision to stand in Caerphilly as an independent signals the end of Forward Wales as a political party.

The party's profile has been non-existent, the website has barely functioned since a number of members left in May 2005 and the membership has continued to haemorrhage.

There are rumours that John Marek, the party's lone AM, will stand on an Independent ticket as well as he fights to keep his Wrexham seat.

Davies was a key member in party's formation - the name was his idea and he formulated the 10 basic aims. The party's failure to move beyond a small group of supporters in Wrexham and Caerphilly has been documented in previous posts here.

It's surprising that none of the mainstream media seem to have realised that Forward Wales has effectively been ditched by its founders just three years after it was launched.

UPDATE
On Radio Wales' Good Morning Wales programme, Mr Davies said although he was standing as an independent, he was still "very much a member of Forward Wales".

The reason he was not standing under the Forward Wales banner, he said, was because of the "party political pantomime down in Cardiff Bay at the moment" and the changes to the assembly electoral system introduced last year.

"The electoral system has been rigged," he added. "The Labour Party last year introduced changes which will make it very difficult for the small parties to get a foot in."

Eh? How does standing as an independent push FW's agenda?

It's taken some time for me to focus on the St Athan "jobs bonanza". Perhaps it was Andrew Davies's rant that did it, so I did a bit of digging. And it's very interesting what you can find in MoD Press Releases.

The 4,000 jobs being created by the MoD's new training base in St Athan will not be for locals:

"Some 3,400 military and 3,000 civilian instructors and support personnel...are potentially affected by the DTR Programme."

This means that 6,400 jobs are going in more than nine bases in England to try to squeeze into 4,000 jobs in Wales. Most will be skilled trainers who move to St Athan, leaving the usual security and cleaning minimum wage jobs for the locals.

This, apparently, will boost house prices. Is this a plus?

The transition will start in late 2008 and is expected to last five years.

So let's count those jobs in 2013 and remind ourselves of the politicians' promises. They might sound something like this BBC report from 2003:

"The Defence Aviation Repair Agency (Dara) has confirmed it will go ahead with a £77m hi-tech maintenance centre - securing 3,300 jobs. Project Red Dragon, which secures the jobs at RAF St Athan, will be built on a 100-acre site at the base in the Vale of Glamorgan, south Wales.
The long-awaited government approval comes after months of uncertainty over the future of the site.
It is expected to act as a springboard for plans for an aviation centre of excellence at RAF St Athan, in the Vale of Glamorgan.
Assembly First Minister Rhodri Morgan said this could potentially create a further 4,000 jobs."

The jobs, of course, were as hyped as these but never materialised.